JPMorgan Slashes Global Stablecoin Forecast to US$500 Billion by 2028

JPMorgan Chase has significantly lowered its expectations for the global stablecoin market, forecasting that its value will reach only US$500 billion by 2028—a far cry from the multi-trillion-dollar predictions offered by more bullish analysts in the space.

In a report published this week, JPMorgan analysts noted that despite the rapid growth of the cryptocurrency market, stablecoins remain predominantly used within the trading and decentralised finance (DeFi) sectors, and have yet to break through into broader adoption for real-world use cases.

According to the bank, approximately 88% of stablecoin usage is currently tied to crypto-related trading activities and DeFi protocols, while only around 6% is attributed to payments or other traditional financial purposes. This breakdown suggests that stablecoins are still far from replacing conventional fiat currencies in mainstream financial systems.

“Stablecoins have yet to become a core component of everyday finance or payments infrastructure,” said JPMorgan. “Despite their popularity among crypto traders, real-world use remains very limited.”

Regulatory Clarity May Spark Change—but Hurdles Remain

While JPMorgan remains conservative in its estimates, the firm acknowledged that emerging regulations could shift the trajectory of the market. In particular, the passage of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate is seen as a potentially transformative step, providing legal clarity and safeguards that may encourage greater institutional investment into stablecoin infrastructure.

However, JPMorgan also highlighted ongoing technical challenges, including the cost and complexity of converting stablecoins into fiat currency, as a major deterrent to broader use.

CBDCs May Be the Real Focus

Contrasting with some institutions that forecast a stablecoin market valued in the trillions, JPMorgan holds the view that central banks around the world are placing greater emphasis on developing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

CBDCs are increasingly seen as the preferred vehicle for modernising payment systems, offering the stability of fiat with the technological advantages of blockchain. This focus could limit the role of privately issued stablecoins in national financial ecosystems.

“While stablecoins are an important part of the crypto economy, the global payments future may be more aligned with state-backed digital currencies,” the report concludes.

Industry Reaction Mixed

Some crypto insiders see JPMorgan’s forecast as overly cautious, arguing that stablecoin adoption is growing organically through fintech integrations and cross-border remittance use cases. Others, however, agree that the market still faces significant headwinds before stablecoins can be widely used beyond the trading floor.

For now, US$500 billion remains a realistic benchmark, and unless stablecoins can expand their utility beyond niche crypto communities, it’s unlikely they’ll become a dominant payment method in the near future.

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